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电池博客

锂电行业寡头的比拼 孰胜孰负?

来源:未知    2019-01-05 10:03    点击量:

ZUIJIN,RUISHIYINXING(UBS)YOUFABULEYIFENGUANYUQUANQIUDONGLIDIANCHIJUTOUSONGXIA、LG HUAXUE、SANXINGSDIHENINGDESHIDAIDEYANJIUBAOGAO,BINGYUCELGHUAXUEJIANGZAI2025NIANCHENGWEIQUANQIUDIANCHIZHIZAOSHANGZHISHOU。

报告预计,未来全球动力电池市场的需求将会激增。全球新能源电动汽车的销量将从2018年的180万辆提升至2025年的1750万辆。而电动汽车电池的需求量将增长9.5倍,预计从2018年的93GWh提升至2025年的973GWh(相当于19个特斯拉超级工厂的产量)。

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WEILAIQUANQIUDIANCHISHICHANGDESHANGJI(ZILIAOLAIZIUBSBAOGAO)

相应的,锂离子电池企业的营业收入将从2018年的230亿美元,增长至2025年的840亿美元。很明显,未来动力电池高镍化是主要的趋势,2020年之后NCM811的市场份额将迅速扩大,到2025年三元材料的NCM622、NCM811和NCA将形成三足鼎立的格局。

BAOGAOZHICHU,WEILAIJINIANNEIDIANXINDECHANNENGJIANGYUXUQIUBAOCHITONGBUZENGZHANG,UBSYUJIDAO2021NIAN,SONGXIA、LG HUAXUE、SANXINGSDI、NINGDESHIDAI,YIJISKIDECHANNENGDOUJIANGCHAOGUO50GWh,SHIJUEDUIDEZENGLIANGLAIYUAN。

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QUANQIUDIANDONGQICHEDIANCHIGONGJILIANGYUCE(ZILIAOLAIZIUBSBAOGAO)

XIANERYIJIAN,WEILAIDEQUANQIUDIANCHISHICHANGGUATOUGEJUJIANGJINYIBUJIAQIANG,QIANWUDAGONGYINGSHANGJIANGZHANJU80%DESHICHANGFENE。QIZHONG,LGHUAXUEHENINGDESHIDAIJIANGSHIZENGZHANGZUIKUAIDEDIANCHIGONGYINGSHANG。UBSYUJI,DAO2025NIANLG HUAXUEYOUWANGCHENGWEIWUDADIANCHIZHIZAOSHANGZHISHOU。

WEILEGENGXIANGXIDILEJIEZHEIJIJIADIANCHIJUTOUDEZONGHESHILI,DIANCHIZHONGGUOWANGCANKAOLEUBSYANJIUBAOGAO,BINGJIEHEDUOFANGZILIAO,DUISONGXIA、LG HUAXUE、SANXINGSDI、NINGDESHIDAIZHEISIJUTOUJINXINGLEBIJIAO。

能量密度排名:松下-宁德时代-LG化学-三星SDI

SONGXIASHIZHONGSUOZHOUZHIDEYUANZHUXINGDIANCHILINGPAOZHE,JUDIANCHIZHONGGUOWANGLEJIE,DANGQIANSONGXIADENCACAILIAO18650DIANCHIZUIGAODANTINENGLIANGMIDUDADAO250Wh/kg,TESILAModel 3SHIYONGDE21700YUANZHUXINGDIANCHIDANTINENGLIANGMIDUDA340Wh/kg,SHIDANGQIANSHICHANGZHONGNENGLIANGMIDUZUIGAODEDIANCHI。

MUQIANNINGDESHIDAIDESANYUANDIANCHIDANTINENGLIANGMIDUDA240Wh/kg,NINGDESHIDAIBIAOSHI,2019NIANJIANGTUICHUDANTINENGLIANGMIDUDADAO280kWh/kgYISHANGDENCM811DIANCHI,BINGJIHUAZAI2020NIANZHIQIANJIANGDIANXINNENGLIANGMIDUTISHENGDAO300Wh/kg。

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NINGDESHIDAINENGLIANGMIDULUXIANTU(ZILIAOLAIZICATLGONGKAIZILIAO)

LG HUAXUEDONGLIDIANCHIDEZHENGJIZHUYAOSHIYONGLESANYUANNCM CAILIAO,DABUFENCAIYONGDIEPIANSHIRUANBAOSHEJI。2020NIANLGHUAXUEJIANGTUICHUDISANDAIDONGLIDIANCHI,DANTIDIANXINNENGLIANGMIDUMUBIAOWEI270-280wh/kg,BIMUQIANLIANGCHANDENENGLIANGMIDUGAOCHU50%。2018NIANJIANGSHIXIANNCM811DIANCHIXIAOPILIANGSHENGCHAN。

MUQIANSANXINGSDIDEQICHEDONGLIDIANCHICHANPINYIFANGXINGDIANCHIWEIZHU,ZHENGJICAILIAOZHUYAOCAIYONGSANYUANNCM。MUQIANSANXINGSDILIANGCHANDEDI3DAIDONGLIDIANCHIDANTINENGLIANGMIDUDA210-230wh/kg。ZHENGZAIYANFADEDI4DAIDIANCHI,DANTINENGLIANGMIDUKEDA270-280 wh/kg,YUJI2021-2022NIANLIANGCHAN,CIHOUDI5DAIDIANCHIDANTINENGLIANGMIDUJIANGDADAO300wh/kg,JIANGYU2023NIANYIHOULIANGCHAN。

电池成本排名:松下-LG化学-三星SDI-宁德时代

UBSZAILINGYIFENYANJIUBAOGAOZHONGTIDAO,RUIYINFENXISHIDUITESILA、SONGXIA、LGHUAXUE、SANXINGSDIYIJININGDESHIDAISHENGCHANDELILIZIDIANCHIJINXINGCHAIJIEFENXI,SONGXIA21700XINGYUANZHUXINGLILIZIDIANCHIDECHENGBENWEI111MEIYUAN/kWh, LGHUAXUEDECHENGBENWEI148MEIYUAN/kWh,SANXINGSDIHENINGDESHIDAIDECHENGBENJUNCHAOGUO150MEIYUAN/kWh,NINGDESHIDAISHAOXUNYUSANXINGSDIWEILIEDISIMING。

产能规划排名:LG化学-宁德时代-松下-三星SDI

JIEZHI2017NIANNIANDI,LG HUAXUEDONGLIDIANCHICHANNENGWEI18Gwh,YUJI2018NIANJIANGKUODAZHI34Gwh。MUQIANLGHUAXUEYONGYOUHANGUO、ZHONGGUO、BOLANHEMEIGUOSIZUODIANCHIGONGCHANG,BINGQIEJIHUADAO2020NIANQUEBAOYONGYOUNIANCHAN110GWhDIANCHIDESHENGCHANNENGLI。

据悉,宁德时代2017年总产能达17.09GWh,其中8.5GWh为三元。2018年产能有望达到31.5GWh,2019年达到45.9GWh,2020年产能达到54GWh。

ZUOWEIZUIZAOJINRUDONGLIDIANCHILINGYUDELONGTOUQIYE,2017NIANSONGXIADECHANNENGYIJINGDADAO22.5GWh,BINGQIEJIANGJIXUWENDINGTIGAOCHANNENG,YUJI2018NIANDADAO33GWh,2020NIANDADAO52GWh。

2017NIANSANXINGSDIDONGLIDIANCHICHANNENGJIN9.9GWh,2018NIANZAIXIONGYALIGONGCHANGDECHANNENGKUOZHANG,JIHUADAO2020NIANJIANGZONGCHANNENGTISHENGZHI25-30Gwh。

装机量排名:宁德时代-松下-LG化学-三星SDI

2015NIAN、2016NIAN、2017 NIAN,NINGDESHIDAIDONGLIDIANCHICHUHUOLIANGFENBIEWEI 2.4Gwh、6.8Gwh、11.84Gwh,PAIMINGQUANQIUFENBIEWEIDI5、DI2、DI1MING。

SHUJUXIANSHI,2015NIAN、2016NIAN、2017 NIAN,SONGXIADONGLIDIANCHICHUHUOLIANGFENBIEWEI4.6Gwh、7.2 Gwh、10Gwh,PAIMINGQUANQIUFENBIEWEIDI1、DI1、DI2 MING。

2015NIAN、2016NIAN、2017 NIAN,LGHUAXUEDONGLIDIANCHICHUHUOLIANGFENBIEWEI1.3 Gwh、1.9 Gwh、4.8Gwh,QUANQIUCHUHUOLIANGPAIMINGFENBIEWEIDI7、DI6、DI4 MING。

GENJUSNEYANJIUSHUJU,2015NIAN、2016NIAN、2017NIAN,SANXINGSDIDONGLIDIANCHICHUHUOLIANGFENBIEWEI1.1Gwh、1.3 GwhHE2.4Gwh,QUANQIUCHUHUOLIANGPAIMINGZHONGFENBIEPAIDI 10、DI9、DI5 MING。

营业收入排名:宁德时代-松下-LG化学-三星SDI

根据宁德时代财报数据,2017年宁德时代动力电池实现营业收入166.5亿元。据了解,2017年松下动力电池收入约合人民币140 亿元。根据Mirae Asset Daewoo的测算,2017年LG化学动力电池收入约合人民币100亿元。根据三星SDI公告,2017年三星SDI大尺寸(含车用动力电池及电池)销售收入约合人民币 90亿元。

国际客户排名:LG化学-三星SDI-松下-宁德时代

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QUANQIUZHUYAOCHEQIDEDIANCHIXUQIULIANG(ZILIAOLAIZIUBSBAOGAO)

LGHUAXUEWEIQUANQIUJIHUSUOYOUZHULIUXINNENGYUANQICHEZHIZAOSHANGTIGONGDIANCHI。MUQIANZAIQUANQIU20DAQICHEPINPAIZHONG,LGHUAXUEYIYUXIANDAI、WOERWO、TONGYONG、KELAISILE、LEINUO、DAZHONGDENG13JIACHEQIZHANKAIHEZUO。

三星SDI与欧洲、美国和亚洲的主要汽车制造商都开展合作项目,迄今为止已被选为30多种电动汽车的核心电池供应商。三星SDI是宝马的战略合作伙伴,其他核心客户包括大众、克莱斯勒、马恒达等。

作为电池的独家供应商,松下与其合作已近十年。同时,松下继续拓展大众、丰田、福特等新客户,已经是大众和福特最大的动力电池供货商。

MUQIANNINGDESHIDAIYIJINGHESHANGQI、BEIQI、JILI、ZHANGAN、YUTONG、DONGFENGDENGZHULIUCHEQIDACHENGHEZUO;BINGYUBAOMA、DAZHONG、JIEBAOLUHU、DAIMULE、RICHANDENGKUAGUOQIYEHEZUO。

DIANCHIZHONGGUOWANGRENWEI,CONGJISHUJIAODU,SONGXIAZAINENGLIANGMIDU、CHENGBENKONGZHIFANGMIANYIQIJUECHEN;CHANNENGGUIHUAJIAODU,LGHUAXUEYAOYAOLINGXIAN;ZHUANGJILIANGHEYINGSHOUJIAODU,NINGDESHIDAIWEILIEDIYI,DANHEDIERMINGSONGXIAMEIYOULAKAIJUEDUICHAJU;ERZAIGUOJIKEHUJIAODU,LGHUAXUEJIAOYOUYOUSHI。ZONGHELAIKAN,ZHEISIJIADIANCHIQIYESHEIZUIQIANGBUHAOLUNDUAN,DANSHISANXINGSDIWUYISHIZUIRUODE,WEILAISHEINENGBADETOUCHOU,HAIYOUDAIGUANCHA。

XUYAOTEBIEZHICHUDESHI,UBSBAOGAOWEIDUIBIYADIJINXINGFENXI。ERWOMENZHIDAO,2017NIANBIYADISHIXIANZHUANGJILIANG7.2Gwh,WEILIEQUANQIUDISAN,JINCIYUNINGDESHIDAIHESONGXIA,SHIMINGFUQISHIDESHIJIEJIJUTOU。JUXI,2020NIANBIYADIDONGLIDIANCHIZONGCHANNENGYUJIKEYIDADAO60GWh,CHAOGUONINGDESHIDAIHESONGXIA,ERBIYADIDONGLIDIANCHIYEWUCHAIFENWANCHENGHOU,BAOFALIYEBIJIANGGENGJIAJINGREN。